The Edwards Scenario
Basically, given that the Democratic nomination is Hillary’s to lose, the only really viable candidate running is John Edwards. There are a number of declared candidates, but most of them have little chance against the name recognition of Edwards or the war chest of Hillary.
I would have thought that Obama was never going to declare. It seemed more likely that he would look at this year as worth having dipped his toe in the water, but that failing to win now would end his political career too early. His recent comments about presidential politics being like a reality television show are very telling. I guess if he hadn't done it now he would have looked wishy washy or something, I don't know.
Clark is not going to get in the race and get the traction needed. I like him and supported him in the caucuses in 2004, but it is clear he needs more exposure to mount a future run. A cabinet position or the veep slot on a Clinton ticket would be a nice fit for him.
Biden. Not a chance. Dennis Kucinich, Tom Vilsack, Chris Dodd, et al all probably have hopes of catching a wave of support, but that seems to be unlikely given the intense coverage that Hillary, Obama, and Edwards get.
Many of my friends on the right hate Hillary. But, to their surprise they find out how much she is loathed by the truly progressive left. She is thought of as this crazy liberal, but the crazy liberals don’t really consider her to be one of them any more. The real electoral chance the party has in 08 (short of an Al Gore comeback that is not going to happen) lies in an Edwards campaign. Edwards was a solid member of an ineptly run Kerry campaign. He has the name recognition that does not carry with it the strong negatives Hillary brings. Edwards can carry the Kerry blue states without losing many of them and can bring in a few red states. He may not be the best candidate in the field, but he has the best chance in a national campaign.
In 04 there was all of this perceived momentum for Dean, yet the party regulars turned out for the guy that they thought would be a better national candidate. I can see all the attention going to Hillary and Obama, but the votes actually turning out for Edwards in Iowa and New Hampshire. The toughest sell for Edwards is that he is a better national or general election candidate than he is as a primary candidate.
Unless I am also completely wrong about the whole Draft Al Gore Movement. At least I hope so.
Basically, given that the Democratic nomination is Hillary’s to lose, the only really viable candidate running is John Edwards. There are a number of declared candidates, but most of them have little chance against the name recognition of Edwards or the war chest of Hillary.
I would have thought that Obama was never going to declare. It seemed more likely that he would look at this year as worth having dipped his toe in the water, but that failing to win now would end his political career too early. His recent comments about presidential politics being like a reality television show are very telling. I guess if he hadn't done it now he would have looked wishy washy or something, I don't know.
Clark is not going to get in the race and get the traction needed. I like him and supported him in the caucuses in 2004, but it is clear he needs more exposure to mount a future run. A cabinet position or the veep slot on a Clinton ticket would be a nice fit for him.
Biden. Not a chance. Dennis Kucinich, Tom Vilsack, Chris Dodd, et al all probably have hopes of catching a wave of support, but that seems to be unlikely given the intense coverage that Hillary, Obama, and Edwards get.
Many of my friends on the right hate Hillary. But, to their surprise they find out how much she is loathed by the truly progressive left. She is thought of as this crazy liberal, but the crazy liberals don’t really consider her to be one of them any more. The real electoral chance the party has in 08 (short of an Al Gore comeback that is not going to happen) lies in an Edwards campaign. Edwards was a solid member of an ineptly run Kerry campaign. He has the name recognition that does not carry with it the strong negatives Hillary brings. Edwards can carry the Kerry blue states without losing many of them and can bring in a few red states. He may not be the best candidate in the field, but he has the best chance in a national campaign.
In 04 there was all of this perceived momentum for Dean, yet the party regulars turned out for the guy that they thought would be a better national candidate. I can see all the attention going to Hillary and Obama, but the votes actually turning out for Edwards in Iowa and New Hampshire. The toughest sell for Edwards is that he is a better national or general election candidate than he is as a primary candidate.
Unless I am also completely wrong about the whole Draft Al Gore Movement. At least I hope so.
*** I wrote this assuming Obama would not run and changed it for this posting ....
No comments:
Post a Comment